Analysis: Mexico – a failed state? No way Jose!

Mexico: A Failed State. Those words, the statement creates an uproar that sends the media into frenzy, because it sells. It raises questions, thoughts, complications. In the forums, the comments on news items relating to Mexico, some newspaper articles even; it’s everywhere, the prospect that Mexico is becoming a failed state. This was bought up in 2008 when global intelligence company, STRATFOR argued that this was, indeed happening, or at least nearing the status of a failed state. This subject has been tackled before, analysed down to every standing foot on the argument, and if one were to look for clarity, they would look for the Failed State Index released by Foreign Policy, and The Fund for Peace.

The latest one puts Mexico at #94, two up from 2010. 2009 put Mexico at #98. Generally speaking, this puts Mexico in the Warning Stage. If you take a look at the last few years, this doesn’t seem so bad. In 2005, it was #73. Fast forward to 2006 when Felipe Calderón is elected President of Mexico – though this doesn’t happen until the end of the year – and it’s put at #85. Jump into 2007 it rises further away from the red lines; #102. Calderón can’t be doing a bad job if it jumps further away from countries like North Korea, Sudan, and Russia to #105 in 2008. Calderón’s attack on the Drug Trafficking Organisations [DTOs] started in 2006, and it’s only in 2009 when it starts slipping back, albeit only a few places.

It must be considered that the Failed States Index currently ranks 177 countries which include most stable nations such as New Zealand, Australia, Sweden, and Canada in the sustainable box while placing the likes of the US and the UK in the moderate box. Therefore it must be made clear that this Failed State Index list does not compile a list of countries that are only considered failed states, but ranks all countries accordingly.

Taking a quick look at the early figures [from a report from The Fund for Peace], it still appears that Mexico is improving in many respects, though its showing its drug war blemishes. Its five core institutions are at a moderate level, Leadership, Military and Civil Service while the remaining two are weak, Policing and Judiciary. Even with the human rights organisations crying out, it still makes it into the moderate human rights box. However they are also appearing weak in State Legitimacy and Security. Overall, Mexico has been placed on a stable, but cautious pedestal.

Why does Mexico: a Failed State jump from time to time then?

Many reasons, though its certain that the seemingly growing influence and power of the DTOs in Mexico’s North and the escalating violence is a prime factor in their arguments. So too is the loss of control by the Government over drug and border matters. The recent March for Peace from Cuernavaca to Mexico City highlights this, suggesting Calderón’s war is out of control.

Much of the news that is shown also suggests a lack of basic security; there is the news coverage of DTOs creating roadblocks and carnage in major cities, blocking local law enforcement from getting into the area. There is news of politicians and would-be politicians being kidnapped, never to be seen again. There are the most recent mass graves where hundreds of bodies have been unearthed, something not often associated places like Mexico; all of this suggests uncertainty.

Overall, the growing media coverage of the Mexican Drug War is showing the war at its worse; a violent and gruesome war waged by seemingly lawless cowboys on the streets with high powered guns with a terrified nation in tow. This limited and almost hopeless view could easily convince an audience that Mexico as a whole is a failed state. With that you also have the media jumping on it, because the tag-line sells; and everyone else goes along with it.

The label however is not accurate because despite the gloomy assessments.

If we were to compare actual failed states with possible failed states, you would look at places like Sudan, North Korea or Somalia. They have some real problems there compared to what we are used to. Here are a few factors that separate Mexico from these countries:

1. Foremost, Mexico has an able government, reasonably strong institutions, and a growing, even booming economy. They are collecting taxes, they are providing education, public hospitals; they are still functioning as a viable Government would.

2. Most of the drug war violence takes place in Northern Mexico, along the border. In the South is Mexico’s heart: Mexico City, one of Latin Americas most important economic power houses and most populated cities. It also houses the most concentrated Law Enforcement and Military in Mexico. Beyond and around this city the violence and effects of the drug war aren’t as prevalent. Many people in the South perceive the problems in the North as minor, not affecting the country as a whole.

Therefore Mexico may have problems with control and DTOs, but ultimately Mexico’s Government are confronting it as they have always done albeit far more staunchly, regardless whether it’s the right way or not; they are confronting a problem that is a real threat to national security, in the hopes of dismantling the problem so that it becomes a local security problem.

3. There is also the bizarre fact that economically, Mexico is benefiting from the war on drugs. It’s argued that too much is at stake if they were to actually take out the DTOs. The flow of money coming in from America is actually invested in Mexico significantly, creating growth, jobs and wealth. We’re talking billions of US dollars here. George Friedman argues that ‘… illegal money everywhere, the goal is to wash it and invest it in legitimate enterprises where it can produce more money. That means it has to enter the economy through legitimate institutions – banks and other financial entities – and then be redeployed into the economy. This is no different from the American Mafia’s practice…’  Hence the need to become effective does not outweigh the benefits from being ineffective. The Mexican Government and Elites understands this, and accepts that the loss – minor to them – is accepted, in order to benefit from the situation.

4. You have crime rates that, when compared with other western hemisphere countries, it’s well below the line. For example if you compare numbers of Mexico since 2007 with countries like Colombia and Brazil, you get the following results:

• Mexico – 45,000 deaths [14 per 100,000]
• Colombia – 50,000 deaths [30 per 100,000]
• Brazil – 80,000 deaths [20 per 100,000]

This is a huge jump and it’s highly likely that people would be a lot more reluctant to draw the same conclusions about Brazil, the land of the Carnival. Further, Mexico’s number is only just over double that of the US.

5. Finally, the economy grew by 5.5% last year in 2010, which represents the fastest rate in a decade. As well as that, the violent crime hasn’t stopped the millions of tourists flocking to Mexico, which when you compare to 2008, is actually an increase. Then you have the latest judicial reforms, the US drug war funds that benefit Mexico; increasing middle class, increasing literacy rates, and expected life averages.

All of these reasons illustrate a stark contrast from a place like Sudan for example, considered a failed state, and if anything point out the total opposite of a failed state.

It seems that we have a prospering state in our midst.

The Mexican Government have taken the ultimate gamble, and in order for them to continue with it, they’ll need public support. Public support, despite recent protests stands at around 54%; many Mexicans believe it’s a necessary cause. Therefore despite the crisis dismal assessments, you can’t argue with the Mexicans who believe in the bigger picture.

Yes, Mexico has a long way to go with the current Mexican Drug War, but it also has a long way to go before Mexico can be called a failed state.

Credit: Crime rates are courtesy of Justice in Mexico, ‘The Drug War in Mexico; Confronting a Shared Threat’ – David A. Shirk, Featured Image Courtesy of the US Naval Institute.

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